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17th May 2018

New poll shows slight decrease in support for ‘Yes’ vote with one week to go

Michael Lanigan

'saving lives'

The No campaign has been gradually growing in the polls since the beginning of the year.

An Irish Times/ Ipsos MRBI opinion poll published on Thursday has found that support for the Yes campaign has decreased slightly in the final week before Irish people vote on whether or not to repeal the Eighth Amendment in the upcoming abortion referendum.

In total, 44% of those surveyed said that they would vote ‘Yes’ in the referendum and 32% said that they would vote ‘No’, while a further 17% remain undecided.

Additionally, 5% said that they would not be voting and the final 2% refused to answer.

The slight shift in the latest poll reveals that support for the Yes campaign has dropped three points, while support for the No campaign has increased by four points. Furthermore, with the number of undecided voters having decreased from 20% to 17%, it appears that the No campaign has been making grounds by swinging a portion of this demographic.

However, the survey also notes that among undecided voters, 31% are leaning towards a ‘Yes’ vote, while 24% are considering ‘No’. The remainder stated that they were not leaning in either direction.

Although this still represents a clear majority in favour of a ‘Yes’ vote, support for repealing the Eighth Amendment has decreased since January after the April poll found a nine-point drop in that period.

Excluding undecided voters in the latest poll, the Yes side holds a lead of 58% to 42% over the No side.

Currently, the most pro-repeal part of the country is Dublin, with 68% of the capital favouring a ‘Yes’ vote to 32% favouring a ‘No’ vote, while 10% remain undecided.

Ulster and Connacht show the tightest margins with 51% of those surveyed saying they will likely be voting ‘Yes’, while 49% will vote ‘No’.

The poll was conducted on 15 and 16 May, and saw the face-to-face participation of 1,200 eligible voters across all constituencies.


The referendum to decide on whether or not to repeal the Eighth Amendment will take place on Friday, 25 May.