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09th Oct 2024

New Irish weather forecast sparks hope of October Indian Summer

Stephen Porzio

If it occurs, it would likely be the last Ireland sees before winter.

Met Éireann’s new monthly forecast is giving hope to the Irish public of another Indian Summer this October.

The Irish meteorological service’s extended range forecast aims to provide an insight into weather patterns for the weeks and months ahead.

And as part of its recent update, Met Éireann is predicting during the rest of October “above average temperatures”, as well as “milder than average conditions”.

This would mostly be between Monday, 21 October and Sunday, 3 November.

That said, the meteorological service also warns that the extended range forecast should not be used for specific planning purposes, as it is “generally low skill” when compared with Met Éireann’s 10-day forecast.

“This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere,” it explained.

You can read Met Éireann’s monthly forecast for October, broken into weeks, below:

Week 1 (Monday, 14 October to Sunday, 20 October)

For Week 1, the predominate signal is for low pressure in the north Atlantic and high pressure over mainland Europe to feed a mild southwesterly airflow over the country with above average temperatures expected throughout.

However, spells of rain and showers will also move in with that airflow with above average precipitation amounts expected. Individual events and running accumulations could lead to some flooding.

Week 2 (Monday, 21 October to Sunday, 27 October)

A more settled situation is signalled for Week 2 with low pressure in the Atlantic declining and high pressure from mainland Europe exerting a greater influence over the country.

Milder than average conditions are expected throughout and rainfall amounts will likely be around or below normal for the time of year. No hazardous weather is signalled at present.

Week 3 (Monday, 28 October to Sunday, 3 November)

Week 3 has a continued signal for mostly settled conditions though potentially with a decline towards the end of the week.

Temperatures are indicated to be generally above average and precipitation amounts are indicated to be below normal.

Week 4 (Monday, 4 November to Sunday, 10 November)

For Week 4, the signal is not as strong but indications are that high pressure will retreat southeastwards allowing a more mobile Atlantic setup to develop.

Temperatures are not signalled to deviate much from normal but a lot of the country will likely have above average rainfall amounts.

For more information on Met Éireann’s extended range forecast, visit its website right here.